When Mike Ozekhome, Senior Advocate of Nigeria warned that the nation’s deepening cost‑of‑living crisis could topple President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election, the comment sparked a fresh round of political speculation across Nigeria. Speaking to The PUNCH on 4 October 2025, Ozekhome said the “misery and disenchantment on the ground” were building a force capable of “easing him out of power”. The stakes are high: a potential coalition between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and 2023 Labour Party frontrunner Peter Obi could turn that force into a decisive opposition bloc.
Rising Discontent and Economic Strain
Since Tinubu took office in May 2023, inflation has consistently hovered above 30 %, while the naira has lost roughly 40 % of its value against the dollar. A recent poll by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that 68 % of respondents rated their personal finances as “worse than a year ago”. The price of basic staples such as rice and daal has surged by double‑digit percentages, leaving many families scrambling to meet daily needs.
Human rights lawyer Abdul Mahmud described the government’s approach as “neo‑imperialist”, arguing that foreign‑linked subsidies and subsidy removals have disproportionately harmed low‑income earners. “Nigerians have suffered enough under Tinubu and will continue to suffer as he proceeds with his neo‑imperialist economic policies,” Mahmud told the newspaper.
Ozekhome’s Warning and the Power of Opposition Unity
Ozekhome’s assessment wasn’t just a legal cavil; he framed it as a constitutional risk. He reminded listeners that “when power is concentrated in one hand for too long, the fabric of democracy begins to fray”. He drew a parallel with the United States, where a two‑party system forces regular alternation of power. "We should have such a template where there is no dominant power bloc," he added.
He also pointed out that opposition parties in Nigeria have historically been fragmented – the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the newly revived Social Democratic Party (SDP) each command distinct regional bases. If they can overcome their rivalries, the combined vote share could eclipse the incumbent’s support, even with the president’s control over state apparatus.
Potential Alliance: Atiku and Obi
Rumours of a joint front between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have been circulating since early September 2025. Atiku, who lost narrowly to Tinubu in the 2023 presidential race, has hinted at a “strategic partnership” aimed at consolidating anti‑incumbent votes. Obi, who captured a strong urban middle‑class vote in 2023, has publicly said that “the future of Nigeria depends on a united opposition that can offer a credible alternative”.
Political analysts note that the two men bring complementary strengths: Atiku’s extensive network among agrarian northern states and Obi’s appeal to the southern professional class. Should they formalise a coalition, the resulting bloc could command over 45 % of the electorate, according to a poll conducted by the Lagos Institute of Electoral Studies on 2 October 2025.
Tinubu’s Grip on State Institutions
Despite the growing unrest, Ozekhome cautioned that Tinubu still “controls virtually every apparatus of state power”. The president’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), holds a majority in both chambers of the National Assembly and occupies key ministries, including Finance, Interior, and Information. Moreover, the Security Service (DSS) and the Nigerian Police have been accused of targeting opposition rallies with heavy-handed tactics.
Legal experts argue that any opposition breakthrough will not only require a united front but also a strategic legal challenge to curb the misuse of state resources. Ozekhome suggested filing constitutional petitions to contest alleged irregularities in the 2023 election, as well as pushing for reforms that would strengthen the independence of the judiciary.
Broader Implications for Nigerian Democracy
If a cohesive opposition emerges, the 2027 election could become a watershed moment, potentially resetting the balance of power after two consecutive APC terms. International observers have warned that continued economic mismanagement could trigger capital flight, further devaluing the naira and deepening poverty.
Conversely, a failure to coalesce may cement Tinubu’s grip, allowing him to cement policies that critics label as “neo‑imperialist” and risk alienating younger voters who are increasingly tech‑savvy and outspoken on social media. The stakes are not just electoral; they touch on Nigeria’s long‑term stability as Africa’s most populous economy.
- Key Fact: Inflation has stayed above 30 % since 2023.
- Polling shows 68 % of Nigerians dissatisfied with living standards.
- Potential Atiku‑Obi coalition could capture >45 % of votes.
- President Tinubu controls a majority in both legislative chambers.
- 2027 election (Nigerian General Election 2027) could reshape the political landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main economic issues driving opposition momentum?
Inflation above 30 %, a 40 % decline in the naira’s value, and soaring food prices have left many households struggling. Surveys show over two‑thirds of Nigerians feel their standard of living has worsened, fueling anger toward Tinubu’s policies.
Who are the key opposition figures potentially uniting for 2027?
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi are the most talked‑about duo. Both have sizable regional bases and have signaled willingness to form a strategic partnership.
How does President Tinubu maintain control over state institutions?
The APC holds a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, and key ministries remain under loyalists. Security agencies have also been accused of suppressing opposition activities, making legal challenges essential for any credible contest.
What could happen if the opposition fails to unite?
A fragmented opposition would likely split the anti‑incumbent vote, allowing Tinubu to win a second term despite economic woes. Continued policies labeled as neo‑imperialist could deepen poverty and trigger further capital flight.
When is the next general election scheduled?
Nigeria’s next presidential and legislative elections are slated for 25 February 2027, a date that will determine whether the country continues under APC rule or shifts to a new coalition.
